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Defense Study Asks, 'Why Have We Not Been Attacked Again?' |
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by Mickey McCarter
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Wednesday, 06 August 2008 |
DTRA and SAIC weigh possibilities as to why no attack on US soil has occured since 9/11
A recent report commissioned by the US Department of Defense examines a number of hypotheses that might explain why Al Qaeda has not launched another attack on US soil since 9/11, questioning whether US counter-terrorism capabilities simply have succeeded in thwarting another attack or terrorists harbor reasons for refraining from an attack.
"The efforts of America's national security community have doubtlessly contributed to the non-occurrence of a subsequent attack on the homeland," the report reads. "Yet a number of less obvious explanations may also have been at work. Among them is the possibility that, in contrast to repeated warnings that the nation faces an ever-present terrorist threat, our enemies have simply not made conducting another large-scale attack on the United States their overriding priority."
The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) collaborated with Science Applications International Corp. to produce the report, titled "Why Have We Not Been Attacked Again?" The report is dated June 2008 but released publicly only this week through the Heritage Foundation think tank. The report summarizes analyses from a group of participants who examined various theories during a conference in September 2007.
While the report draws no overriding conclusions, it examines support and objections to a number of hypotheses that could explain terrorist attacks like those of 9/11 have not occurred again. Some of these hypotheses compete with one another while some complement others. The report focuses on Al Qaeda but also encompasses other radical Muslim groups and lone jihadists.
The report acknowledges that US forces have disrupted terrorist plots against the United States since 9/11 and cites those cases as evidence in favor that successful counter-terrorist activities have defeated potential attacks, including these under hypotheses that proclaim US capabilities against terrorism.
In addition, researchers recognize that any break in terrorist attacks on the United States also may stem from the intent of the terrorists and seek to explore potential terrorist motivations in a separate group of hypotheses.
The DTRA report proceeds from the assumption that 9/11 was not an anomaly but rather it represented the manifestation of "enduring grievances" against the United States from radical Islamists who object to US foreign policy in the Middle East. The National Intelligence Estimate of July 2007 noted that Al Qaeda continues to possess an active interest in attacking the US homeland, the report says.
Hypotheses
Experts extracted the hypotheses examined within the report from open-source intelligence, relying upon their knowledge of terrorism to hold the number of hypotheses at a manageable level.
The first group of hypotheses references the capabilities of US and allied forces as well as the capabilities of terrorist organizations. The first "basket" of hypotheses proclaims that the United States and its allies keep Al Qaeda on the defensive, preventing the organization from mounting another attack. The second basket of hypotheses offers possibilities that Al Qaeda has been unable to rebuild after its losses in the US war on terrorism or unable to gain key recruits, resources or funds for another successful attack.
The second group of hypotheses questions the motivations of terrorist organizations. The third basket of hypotheses bundles explanations that suppose that Al Qaeda is simply biding its time so that it can mount a more devastating attack than 9/11 on the United States. Additional ideas in this basket ponder the possibility that terrorists are reluctant to create more international sympathy for the United States with another large attack as well as other questions.
The fourth basket of hypotheses examines the priorities of Al Qaeda and other terrorists to ask whether they may be more preoccupied with targets in the Middle East and Europe in addition to concentrating on regional conflicts such as battles of Sunnis against Shia.
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Mickey McCarter |
| About the author: |
| eNewsletter Editor/Senior Washington Correspondent,
is a journalist with more than a decade of experience in reporting
on
military affairs and information technology.
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